Even after its restrictions, the new Important Analytics provides the most readily useful offered investigation with which in order to guess new federal splitting up speed when you look at the 1990. S. Census Bureau group indicates that marital events data from the ACS and U.S. Essential Statistics (such as the DRA test) is actually equivalent ( Elliott ainsi que al., 2010). Rates for more modern times commonly you’ll because government government discontinued the fresh new line of important analytics on the marriage ceremonies and you will divorces at county level during the 1996.
In order that our very own results are robust, we did an extra analysis because of the limiting brand new 2010 ACS data to simply the newest DRA try says by which age from the lifetime of separation and divorce is actually said inside 1990. The outcome out of this extra research are almost same as the individuals in line with the whole country, indicating that upsurge in the fresh new split up rates is not a keen artifact out of including ACS analysis from the claims.
Analytical Approach
Our approach is primarily descriptive as we aim to provide trend data on divorce and to identify the factors associated with divorce among today’s middle-aged and older adults. All results are presented for the total sample and separately for middle-aged (aged 50–64) and older (aged 65 and older) adults to assess whether there is cohort variation. To begin, we calculate the 1990 and 2010 divorce rates (and numbers of divorces) to determine whether the risk of https://getbride.org/azerbaidzanin-naiset/ divorce has increased over the past two divorce rates for various subgroups to show how the likelihood of divorce varies by sociodemographic factors (demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography). Next, we present bivariate comparisons of those who divorced versus remained e sets of factors. Finally, we estimate logistic regression models to examine how demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography are related to divorcing in the past 12 months (coded 1) versus remaining married (coded 0). Individuals who experienced widowhood in the past 12 months are included in the remained married category because they were at risk of divorce in the past 12 months. Excluding them from the analysis produced substantively similar findings (results not shown). These models provide correlational evidence only; divorces took place during the past 12 months, whereas the sociodemographic characteristics are measured at interview. Factors associated with the likelihood of divorce, such as employment or income, may have changed in response to divorce. Thus, interpretation of the findings requires caution. All analyses were conducted using replicate weighting techniques as recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau to generate robust standard errors because the ACS involves a complex sampling design ( U.S. Census Bureau, 2009). Given the large sample size of the ACS, we imposed a stringent threshold for statistical significance: a two-tailed p < .01>
R esults
As revealed from inside the Shape 1, this new divorce rates possess doubled as 1990, ascending away from 4.9 to help you ten.step one divorced people each 1,000 partnered people. That it trend belies the general development regarding You.S. divorce or separation speed during this time, which had been generally flat during the 19.0 inside the 1990 and you can 17.nine this present year (effect perhaps not found). The doubling of your own rate from divorce case certainly center-old and you may older adults translates into a hefty rise in the brand new number of individuals aged fifty and older who sense divorce. During the 1990, approximately 206,007 somebody aged fifty and you will elderly got separated, whereas this season on 643,152 got separated. To help you contextualize so it development, envision you to fewer than one in 10 individuals which divorced within the 1990 try old 50 and you can old weighed against over 1 inside the cuatro today (result maybe not shown). Also, and when the newest divorce case rate remains lingering along side 2nd two decades-a conservative assumption according to the previous pattern-just how many individuals old 50 and you can earlier who sense separation when you look at the 2030 manage rise by the 1/3rd so you can more than 828,380 (authors’ calculation predicated on age-specific projected populace brands during the 2030 [ You.S. Census Agency, 2004]), highlighting the fresh increasing growth in the brand new elderly adult population that will are present over the 2nd 2 decades.
